XRP rebounded towards $1.32 on Friday after a sharp sell-off, but the recovery has not yet shown that buyers are back in control.
The token fell from above $1.42 on September 15 to an intraday low near $1.27, then tested roughly $1.25 before stabilising around $1.29-$1.32.
Momentum has become unusually stretched, as XRP’s two-week RSI has fallen to its lowest level in 13 years.
XRP is sitting where bulls expected buyers to appear
The rebound has occurred around a zone traders were already watching before the latest selloff.
In a X post, Egrag Crypto noted that $1.26-$1.30 represented an initial accumulation area if the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish surprise. “A sharp downside move could create an opportunity, not necessarily a reason to panic,” the post said.
XRP subsequently fell almost directly into that zone before recovering.
That gives bulls evidence that buyers are willing to absorb supply. It also fits with the idea that the latest selloff exhausted some aggressive sellers after a roughly 10% single-session drop.
But one support test does not establish a durable bottom.
Egrag also identified a deeper $1.15-$1.25 region if selling intensifies. That keeps downside risk open if the current bounce fails to attract follow-through buying.
The price action suggests stabilisation rather than a confirmed trend change for bulls at this stage.
Bulls still need $1.38 before calling a reversal
The technical damage from this week’s breakdown remains important.
Before the selloff, analyst Ali Martinez identified $1.31-$1.35 as the support area XRP needed to defend and $1.38 as the key breakout level, according to CCN.
“A decisive break above that resistance could trigger the bullish breakout and open the door to $1.60,” Martinez said.
That setup weakened when XRP broke below the support zone.
The burden of proof has also shifted, as a move from $1.25 back towards $1.30 or $1.32 is a rebound. To become a convincing reversal, XRP first needs to reclaim the lost $1.31-$1.35 region and then clear $1.38 with enough momentum to hold above it.
That distinction matters because oversold markets often produce sharp countertrend rallies before sellers return.
XRP also remains below major long-term moving averages, reinforcing the view that the technical recovery is incomplete.
Lose $1.29 and the bull-trap case strengthens
The most important downside level is now $1.29.
BeInCrypto reported that XRP’s 20-week exponential moving average sits around that price, making the area more significant than an ordinary intraday support line.
Technical analyst ChartNerd warned that “if XRP witnesses daily or weekly closes below $1.29, the next support is back at $1.00.”
He also highlighted the continuing sequence of lower highs and lower lows, arguing that the intermediate structure still looks more like consolidation than a confirmed reversal.
That makes $1.29 the clean dividing line.
If XRP keeps defending it while RSI improves and price begins reclaiming former support, the seller-exhaustion argument gains credibility.
However, if XRP closes decisively below it, the rebound could look increasingly like bargain hunters buying too early inside a broader downtrend.
The next move depends less on how oversold XRP looks and more on what price does between $1.29 and $1.38.
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